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Wind power is largely produced during the periods of low demand, with little generation during periods of high demand. As a result, the efficiency of the power output of wind turbines is reduced when compared to those of gas turbines. However, this is not a problem if wind power, as a percentage of total generation, is increased. For example, in the UK the annual increase in wind power was 7% to 11% from 2008-2012, during which time the installed wind power capacity increased from 18,000 MW to 50,000 MW.
While there is a continuous discussion on efficiency gains for wind turbines, the latest data show that the power output of the average wind turbine is only 1.7% (across continents) to 2.1% (in Europe) of that of a natural-gas-fired turbine. It is expected that with ongoing research and development, this efficiency will reach as much as 3% for the average wind turbine by 2030. Thus, in most cases wind power can be considered to be a cost-effective alternative to conventional power generation (especially with the use of carbon taxes, which are not required in most of the countries which have installed wind power capacity). It is also most cost-effective in the countries where the wind resources are not fully utilized, as the cost of wind power is strongly dependent on the amount of wind energy. For example, US wind energy producers received a subsidy per kilowatt hour of about [1_TEXT].05 in 2010, while the cost of electricity at that time was [1_TEXT].12 per kilowatt hour.
A key factor in the cost of wind power is the cost of wind energy. The cost of wind energy falls every year. The cost of wind energy has followed a roughly S-shaped curve. The cost of wind energy is expected to follow an S-shaped curve for several decades, with the projected average cost in 2020 of $27/MWh (1.5 cents/kWh).[2] Wind energy costs are forecast to fall by about 4 to 5 cents/kWh each year, from about $25/MWh in 2018 and 2021, to $23/MWh in 2026 and beyond. The cost of wind energy is falling because of the increasing availability of technologies such as turbine power electronics , which reduces the variability and need for grid support and wind turbines with variable speed drives (VSDs) , which reduce the cost of generating electricity from wind. The future price of wind energy (which is typically expressed as ROCE , Return on Cost of Energy) will be determined by the cost of wind energy in combination with the cost of transmission and distribution.
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